Here we go. (pic stolen from mlb.com)
Quick Summary: I predict Cubs in 4. I predict it all depends on the first game.
The race to see which team loses to the American League in the World Series begins tomorrow. Thanks to the Gods at TBS, I get to stay up late Wednesday and Thursday to watch 9pm games. But at least my daughter will be in bed by the first pitch. That way I can be good and snookered should Zambrano go south in the 5th inning.
The first matchup for the Cubs is against the worst team in the playoffs, Arizona. Here's some highlights of the matchup:
Starting Pitching: The Cubs have four solid starters. The Diamondbacks have Brandon Webb and...uhh...three other guys. If the Diamondbacks could start Webb every day, they'd bury every team. Fortunately for the Cubs, they can't. Also, fortunately, three of the D-Backs' starters are righties. That's very good news.
Relief Pitching: Both teams solid. No question this series is going to be a pitching duel.
Pitching Overall: D-Backs have the 4th best ERA in the NL; Cubs marginally beat them with second best. Here's a couple stats you haven't heard enough about: Cubs gave up the least hits and pitched the most strikeouts in all of baseball this year. We do have a lot of walks though.
Offense: No question just being average makes the Cubs easily better than the awful D-Backs. Their OBP is a joke. Much has been said about the low HR output of the Cubs this year, which was due to a lot of factors that no longer apply, such as nagging injuries and wind. That's why they turned it around so much in September. Luck was also a factor here; the Cubs had a franchise-record 340 doubles. Add 2 feet to all those hits and there'd be a lot more home runs.
Defense: The Diamondbacks have the best defense in baseball. The Cubs are also at the top of the heap. It's hard to say this will have an effect over one week.
Other Stuff: Both teams have deep benches. Diamondbacks are marginally faster. Cubs are much more experienced.
Summary: Brandon Webb is the giant of the Diamondbacks. The Cubs have a definite advantage in the other games, albeit not a huge one. I really think if they lose the first game, they'll be hard pressed to come back. But if they win it, they'll be sitting pretty. That's why Webb is the linchpin...I think we'll know early in the first game what our chances are.
Either way, you're going to see a bunch of heavy-defense, hard-fought low scoring games. Look for Pinella to try freaky stuff like squeeze plays. If you want to see some crazy games, watch Colorado vs. Philadelphia. Those games should all be blowouts.
My pick: If the Cubs lose game one, they lose in four or five. If they win game one, they win in four.
